瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated strongly and closed at 2,571 yuan/ton. Last week, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 83.4%. In terms of demand, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.83% to 85.21%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 0.67% to 87.77%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.13% to 65.76%. The inventory of national liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 7.99% to 356,800 tons last week, resuming the destocking trend. There are planned maintenance devices in the northwest and northeast this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline month - on - month. There are many maintenance plans for chlor - alkali devices in September, and the industry supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Alumina enterprises' profits are shrinking but there is no cost - based production cut, and the amount of caustic soda delivered is still high. Non - aluminum downstream in Shandong shows resistance to high prices, and the market price of liquid caustic soda has declined. The inventory pressure is not large, and the supply of goods in South and Southwest China is currently tight. Benefiting from the upcoming introduction of a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key industries, industrial products rose mainly on the day. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support near 2,530 and the pressure near 2,630 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 110,751 lots, down 8,105 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 13,393 lots, up 2,772 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 279,647 lots, down 59,684 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2,571 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 845 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,640.63 yuan/ton, down 78.13 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda was 70 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. As of September 11th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 356,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [3]