Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 10:57Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources caused by the PNBP policy in Indonesia [2]. - Steel mills' production profits have improved significantly, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase due to rising steel prices and weak increases in raw material costs [2]. - At the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". With the support of domestic fiscal investment policies, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the inventory in the domestic market is decreasing while the spot premium remains stable [2]. - Technically, there is an increase in positions and price adjustments, with differences between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to the support of MA5. It is recommended to wait and see for now or go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,070 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,039 lots, an increase of 1,759 lots; the position of the main contract is 133,829 lots, an increase of 7,543 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 96,349 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 350 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 123,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units; the monthly production of excavators is 10,000 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2]. Industry News - In August 2025, the new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31 billion yuan; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 460 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8% [2]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year, and also in January, April, and July 2026. There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [2].