《财政洞悉》系列第九篇：深化财税体制改革：赋能“十五五”高质量发展的制度基石

Group 1: Fiscal and Tax Reform Objectives - The core objective of the fiscal and tax reform during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to address current fiscal constraints and promote long-term governance modernization[1] - The reform aims to enhance resource potential through budget system innovation, optimize distribution through tax system reform, and improve governance vitality by restructuring central-local relations[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" laid a foundation for these reforms, highlighting the need for a modern fiscal system and achieving progress in budget and tax reforms[2] Group 2: Key Directions for Reform - The reform will focus on four main areas: budget performance, tax modernization, central-local collaboration, and comprehensive debt management[2] - Budget performance emphasizes increasing public budget expenditure and optimizing spending effectiveness, addressing issues like low completion rates and mismatched revenue and expenditure[3] - Tax modernization will involve aligning tax reforms with industrial structure adjustments, enhancing the direct tax system, and advancing consumption tax reforms[3] Group 3: Central-Local Financial Relations - The current imbalance in financial power and responsibilities between central and local governments necessitates increased local financial autonomy through tax reforms[3] - In 2024, the central government's fiscal expenditure accounted for 14.3%, while local governments accounted for 85.7%, indicating a significant reliance on local governments for social services and infrastructure[3] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, with a projected total of CNY 103,415 billion in 2025, highlighting the need for balanced fiscal relations[3] Group 4: Debt Management Strategies - Since the large-scale issuance of local government bonds in 2015, the expansion of government debt has become a key feature of fiscal policy, necessitating a unified debt management framework[3] - The introduction of a comprehensive debt management system aims to address both explicit and implicit debt risks, with measures including the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts[3] - The ongoing transformation of financing platforms is crucial to mitigate the risks associated with hidden debts, with over 60% of financing platforms reportedly exiting by mid-2025[3] Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, insufficient local investment momentum, and unexpected market fluctuations due to unforeseen events[3]