瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The view maintains a cautious and bullish stance, suggesting interval band trading and being aware of the callback pressure after the market fully digests the interest rate cut expectations [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market continues its volatile and bullish trend. Soft US economic data continuously supports the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the market trading sentiment is optimistic, with speculative buying demand continuously flowing in. The year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI in August met market expectations, consumer prices rose moderately, and the transmission of tariffs to the inflation side was controllable. The silver price continued to hit new historical highs driven by interest rate cut expectations, while the upward trend of the gold price has converged. In the short term, the buying demand at the key support levels in the precious metals market is still relatively strong, and the optimistic trading sentiment in the market may continue until the next Fed interest rate meeting [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 831.6 yuan/gram, down 2.62 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 10,017 yuan/kilogram, down 18 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 104,349 hands, down 4,918 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 204,407 hands, down 14,921 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168,544 hands, down 1,994 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 123,855 hands, down 2,553 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 53,226 kilograms, up 276 kilograms; that of silver was 1,243,481 kilograms, down 3,088 kilograms [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network was 829.1 yuan/gram, down 1.7 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9,975 yuan/kilogram, down 13 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.5 yuan/gram, up 0.92 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 42 yuan/kilogram, up 5 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 974.8 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,069.6 tons, down 67.77 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) were 261,740 contracts, up 12,210 contracts; those of silver were 53,937 contracts, down 1,986 contracts. The total supply of gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver (annually) was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold (quarterly) was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver (annually) was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.48%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.96%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.48%, down 1.96 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was also 20.48%, down 1.96 percentage points [3] 3.5 Industry News - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, believing that inflation pressure has been effectively curbed and the euro - zone economy remains robust. ECB President Lagarde said the inflation reduction process in the euro - zone is over, and trade uncertainty has significantly decreased. Traders reduced their bets on the bank's easing policies, suggesting the interest rate cut cycle has ended. There is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, lowering the policy interest rate range to 4% - 4.25%, and an extremely small possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is among the top candidates for the next Fed chairman. Rieder has said the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, rising for two consecutive months. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points from 18% to 17%, while the market generally expected a 200 - basis - point cut. The Russian central bank emphasized that future cuts will depend on whether inflation continues to slow [3]