沪锡期货周报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the SHFE tin 2510 contract experienced a tug - of - war between bulls and bears in a complex market environment, with significant price fluctuations. Positive macro data spurred active capital inflows, driving up the price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: The price of the SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of first declining and then rising. In the first half of the week, it fluctuated downward due to macro - economic data and market sentiment. In the second half, with marginal improvement in macro sentiment and supply - side tightness, bullish forces strengthened, leading to a strong rebound and an overall price increase. The price fluctuated sharply, and the battle between bulls and bears was intense [3]. - Variety Price: The report provides detailed price data for multiple SHFE tin contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and other information. For example, the sn2510 contract had a weekly opening price of 273,340, a high of 274,900, a low of 268,010, and a closing price of 273,950 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Registered Warehouse Receipts: On September 12, the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts were 7,326 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day. The cumulative decrease in SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts in the past week was 71 tons [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry Aspect: On the supply side, tin ore mining in production areas such as Yunnan in China has been continuously restricted, and some smelters continued their maintenance in September, constraining the output of concentrates and supporting the spot price. On the demand side, the traditional electronic solder field was weak due to the drag of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with lackluster demand growth for SHFE tin. The lack of demand led to light trading in the spot market and limited upward momentum for the spot price [8]. - Macro Factors: The year - on - year growth rate of the US PPI in August unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, and the core PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. This strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, weakening the US dollar index and providing some support for the US - dollar - denominated SHFE tin price [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook Given the rigid constraints on raw materials and maintenance plans, the smelter operating rate has dropped significantly, and there are no signs of substantial improvement in the short term. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the tin price is likely to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [10].