Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly production of asphalt remains at a high level, and demand has strengthened on a week - on - week basis. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain is stably driven. Currently, refinery inventories have stabilized at a low level, while social inventories intend to actively reduce inventory before the end of the year. Asphalt supply is still relatively abundant, and combined with decent refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation is relatively high. - In the short term, oil prices will mainly show a wide - range fluctuating trend. The cost side of asphalt lacks a clear driving force. Unilateral prices are expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread will be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On September 15, 2025, the prices of BU2511 (the main contract), BU2512, and BU2601 increased by 0.74%, 0.72%, and 0.81% respectively compared to September 12. The prices of SC2510 and Brent first - line contracts rose by 2.69% and 2.28% respectively. The main contract's position decreased by 4.74% to 241,000 lots, and trading volume dropped by 14.44% to 204,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.32% to 67,360 tons [2]. - Basis and Calendar Spreads: The BU12 - 01 spread decreased by 16.67% to 15, the BU11 - 12 spread increased by 2.70% to 38. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 10.33%, 12.70%, and 20.12% respectively [2]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price decreased by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton, the South China market price dropped by 0.29% to 3490 yuan/ton, and the East China market price remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased by 0.37%, 0.05%, and remained unchanged respectively. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 6.1, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.05% to 7.1056 [2]. - Spreads and Profits: The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 254.83% to - 48.45 yuan/ton, the refined oil comprehensive profit dropped by 18.88% to 360.77 yuan/ton. The BU - SC cracking spread decreased by 13.83% to - 594.10 yuan/ton, the gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased by 9.93% to 961.63 yuan/ton, and the diesel spot - Brent spread decreased by 10.58% to 709.15 yuan/ton [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Market Overview: On September 15, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous day. In North China, the main refineries delivered previous contracts smoothly, and the 70 asphalt was sold in limited quantities, driving up the market average price. In Shandong, some refineries resumed asphalt production, with sufficient supply and good sales. In East China, demand was stable, and there were a small number of low - price shipping resources. In South China, demand was tepid, and low - price social inventory resources were mainly traded [5][6]. - Market Outlook: The Shandong market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3640 - 3800 yuan/ton. The East China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. The South China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In the future, the South China market's demand will be slowly released, and some refineries' low - production of asphalt will support local prices to remain stable [5][6].
银河期货沥青日报-20250915
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-15 11:03