瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 590 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. The global financial market will迎来 a "central bank super week". The Fed is expected to cut interest rates multiple times. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining permit approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain cold, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium is adjusted downwards. Technically, with stable positions and price adjustments, there are differences in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct interval operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 273,960 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin was - 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price was 34,955 US dollars/ton, with a change of 255 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 26,117 lots, a decrease of 1,373 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,780 lots, a decrease of 762 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,620 tons, an increase of 235 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,897 tons, an increase of 124 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants were 185 tons, a decrease of 15 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin were 7,402 tons, an increase of 76 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 273,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 630 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract was - 660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 610 yuan/ton. The LME tin spread (0 - 3) was - 34.98 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 79.98 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 261,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 265,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 177,790 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, new RMB loans in China increased by 590 billion yuan, 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the new social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings this year and in January, April, and July 2026. According to the FedWatch tool, there is a 93.4% probability that the FOMC will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week [3]