Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 11:03Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the Shanghai nickel industry dated September 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel was 122,580 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread was -240 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] - The LME 3 - month nickel price was 1,5380 dollars/ton, up 160 dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai nickel was 70,610 hands, down 2,030 hands [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel was -28,268 hands, up 1,774 hands; the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 tons, down 600 tons [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrant total was 7,974 tons, down 600 tons [3] - The warrant quantity for Shanghai nickel was 24,959 tons, up 1,430 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 123,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Co., Ltd. was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 420 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread was -171.2 dollars/ton, up 2.52 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output was 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output was 2.2 million metal tons, down 0.02 million metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 173.79 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [3] Group 3: Industry News - In August 2025, China's new RMB loans were 59 billion yuan, 31 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 460 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8% [3] - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, and in January, April and July 2026. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the FOMC this week is 93.4% [3] Group 4: Core Views - On the macro - front, China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 59 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. Global financial markets will face a "central bank super - week" [3] - On the fundamental side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts release, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. The premium of domestic mines is stable. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, with raw materials in a tight situation [3] - In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises in July remained stable, the output of some smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned, driving a slight increase in overall refined nickel output [3] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and they have increased production. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, the spot premium is stable, domestic inventories increase, and overseas LME inventories accumulate [3] - Technically, the position increases and the price rebounds, with wide - range oscillations. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 125,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]