瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall methanol production in China has increased slightly as the output from restored production capacity is more than the loss from maintenance and production cuts. Before the National Day holiday, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased due to downstream stocking and increased procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. However, the port inventory continued to increase significantly. The import demand is expected to be stable this week, and the port inventory is likely to continue the inventory accumulation trend. The olefin production capacity utilization rate decreased due to the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, but it is expected to rise after the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and the continued shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 yuan/ton in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. - The main contract holding volume of methanol is 783,891 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,520 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,186 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts for methanol is 16,131, unchanged from the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2117.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 167.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 263 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, a decrease of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.96 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 46.08 tons, an increase of 3.54 tons. - The import profit of methanol is 13.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, an increase of 1500 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1022 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.26%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.08%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 15.48%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 tons, or 1.31%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 25.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 tons, or 3.91%. - As of September 10, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 155.03 tons, an increase of 12.26 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 8.72 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 3.54 tons. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 82.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.16%. [2]