Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-15 11:02Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production decreased by 3.12% week-on-week to 612,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.51 percentage points to 78.04%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 1.1% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.9%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 8.03% to 487,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 2.44% to 546,600 tons, with little total inventory pressure [2]. - This week, some devices such as Jinghai Chemical and Guoneng Xinjiang will restart, and some devices such as Jilin Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical are planned to be shut down for maintenance. Production and capacity utilization are expected to rise month-on-month. The loss of PE device maintenance in September is expected to increase, but considering the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the industry's supply pressure is difficult to improve [2]. - The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders have increased sharply. The demand for packaging films is driven by domestic Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and overseas Christmas stocking, with room for order growth [2]. - In the short term, the impact of the Palestine - Israel and Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflicts on costs is limited. OPEC+ production increases and the seasonal weakening of US fuel demand put pressure on international oil prices. Benefiting from the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. Technically, the daily K - line of L2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 7290 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,252 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,269 yuan/ton, up 219 yuan [2]. - The trading volume was 264,026 lots, up 19,671 lots; the open interest was 554,975 lots, down 6,135 lots [2]. - The September - January spread was 37, up 156; the long position of the top 20 futures holders was 400,733 lots, up 1,699 lots; the short position was 442,335 lots, down 2,528 lots; the net long position was - 41,602 lots, up 4,227 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,221.3 yuan/ton, down 26.96 yuan; in East China, it was 7,322.38 yuan/ton, down 17.62 yuan [2]. - The basis was 52.3, up 13.04 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.43 US dollars/barrel, down 0.56 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 598.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.5 US dollars [2]. - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 851 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film was 51.3%, up 0.82 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 24.12%, up 3.94 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 6.41%, down 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.3%, down 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.75%, up 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.74%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, China's PE production totaled 612,800 tons, a 3.12% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate of PE production enterprises was 78.04%, a 2.51 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period [2]. - From September 5th to 11th, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [2]. - As of September 10th, the inventory of China's PE production enterprises was 487,000 tons, a 8.03% increase from the previous period; as of September 12th, the inventory of PE social sample warehouses was 546,600 tons, a 2.44% decrease from the previous period [2].