经济读数平淡

Group 1: Summary of the Core View - The current economic readings are rather dull, with the overall production growth slowing down in August. The single - month economic data is prone to fluctuations, but the internal economic momentum continues to recover [4][5][7] - The contradiction in current asset pricing does not lie in the fundamentals. The "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation is the result of institutional re - allocation of stock and bond assets, and single - month data fluctuations will not change the current risk - preference environment or the expected direction of institutional asset re - allocation [6] - When dealing with the bond market, one should adopt a trading - based approach, focus on the opportunities of structural term spreads and variety spreads, as the bond market remains a "weak asset" and single - month economic data is unlikely to change the trend [9] Group 2: Industry Data Analysis Industrial Industry - In the upstream of the industrial industry, the production of non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and chemical raw material products has accelerated year - on - year. In the mid - and downstream equipment and consumer goods manufacturing, the output growth of the pharmaceutical and special equipment production has accelerated. The growth rate of industrial added value in other industries has declined compared with last month [4] - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among the three major sectors, the production growth rate of the mining industry has rebounded, while the year - on - year growth rates of the manufacturing and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water have declined [7] Service Industry - The growth rate of service industry production has slowed down. In August, the service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points lower than that of last month. The prosperity of producer services such as information technology, finance, and leasing is higher than the overall service industry [4] Investment - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment has slowed down. In August, the completed amount of fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.15% year - on - year, 1.81 percentage points lower than that of last month. Among them, real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments decreased by 19.5%, 6.4%, and 1.3% year - on - year respectively [8] - Real estate sales and investment continue to bottom out, with the decline in sales prices narrowing. In August, the sales volume and sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14% and 10.6% year - on - year respectively. The real estate new construction area and completion area decreased by 20.3% and 21.4% year - on - year respectively [8] Consumption - In terms of consumption, catering consumption is recovering, while commodity consumption has slowed down, which may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment in some provinces. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than that of last month [8] - Among commodity consumption, the year - on - year growth rates of gold and silver jewelry, household appliances, and communication equipment have changed significantly compared with last month. The sales volume of gold and silver jewelry may be related to the rapid rise in precious metal prices, while the slowdown of household appliances and communication equipment may be affected by the "national subsidy" rhythm adjustment after the "618" promotion [8] Group 3: Impact of Economic Data - After the release of economic data, bond yields first declined and then rose. The bond market has experienced an oversold rebound recently. After the release of economic data, the long - term bond yields rebounded, but then rose again [7] - Single - month economic data is affected by policy rhythm changes and structural transformation, and its fluctuations are unlikely to change the overall trend. Although the overall economic data in August is not outstanding, the internal economic momentum continues to recover [5][6]