可选消费W37周度趋势解析：9月博彩板块延续景气度，跑赢其他可选子行业-20250915

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary sector, including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Anta Sports, Gree Electric, and others [1]. Core Insights - The gambling sector continues to show strong performance in September, outperforming other discretionary sub-sectors, with a weekly increase of 1.8% [4][16]. - Domestic cosmetics and luxury goods also performed positively, with increases of 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, while other sectors like overseas sportswear and snacks faced declines [4][16]. - The report highlights that most sub-sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Performance Review - The gambling sector led the weekly performance with a 1.8% increase, followed by domestic cosmetics at 0.7% and luxury goods at 0.3%. In contrast, overseas sportswear and snacks saw declines of 3.0% and 4.1% respectively [4][16]. - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains in gold and jewelry, domestic cosmetics, and pets, with increases of 167.1%, 60.6%, and 38.8% respectively [13]. Sector Analysis - The gambling sector's strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected results during the off-season, with optimism for the upcoming peak season driven by events like the NBA and concerts [6][16]. - Domestic cosmetics are benefiting from successful marketing campaigns, with notable sales figures reported [6][17]. - The overseas sportswear sector is under pressure due to disappointing earnings forecasts and competition, leading to significant stock price declines [8][17]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are trading below their five-year average P/E ratios, indicating potential for growth. For instance, the expected P/E for the overseas sportswear sector is 33.4 times, which is 59% of its historical average [20]. - The gambling sector's expected P/E is 34.2 times, which is 40% of its historical average, suggesting it may be undervalued [20].