橡胶甲醇原油：偏多情绪回暖，能化震荡反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, oscillating and rebounding, with a slight gain on Monday. After the digestion of previous negative sentiment, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising on Monday. Driven by the sharp rebound of domestic coal futures prices, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, with a slight gain on Monday. Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.24%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.72% [8]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a rebound of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.21%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9193 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 126,700 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate was 79.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.81%, with no week - on - week change [10]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 138 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.2673 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 376,200 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 365,100 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 342,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,900 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 88,400 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 99. The average daily crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 195,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of September 5, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 425 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.939 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.503 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.857 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514,000 barrels [13]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,219 contracts from the August average, a decline of 32.95%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a slight increase of 3,457 contracts from the August average, an increase of 1.71% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,995 yuan/ton | +175 yuan/ton | - 920 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | - 96 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 452.8 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 489.3 yuan/barrel | +14.0 yuan/barrel | - 36.5 yuan/barrel | - 13.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, operating rates, and net position changes [16][30][43].