原油：地缘和OPEC+拉锯，油价宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the second - round of production increase, and the EIA weekly data shows a signal of peaking demand. The pressure of crude oil surplus will further increase in the fourth quarter. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, any rise in oil prices will boost OPEC+'s enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of oil prices. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, investors should seize the rebound and building - position opportunities brought about by the volatile geopolitical situation and interest - rate cut expectations [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. International Crude Oil Analysis - Crude Oil Price Trends: From September 8 - 12, international oil prices fluctuated widely. Although OPEC+ announced continued production increase, the deadlock in the tri - party negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine and the threat of new sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US almost offset the short - term bearish sentiment caused by the supply surplus. As of September 12, the settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $62.72/barrel (-1.87%) and $66.65/barrel (-1.22%) respectively; the settlement price of INE SC was 482.72 yuan/barrel (-0.72%) [8]. - Financial Aspects: The US CPI in August exceeded expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level in nearly four years. The market still anticipates consecutive interest - rate cuts this year. As of September 12, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility dropped significantly compared to when the tariff policy was first implemented and remained at a low level [11]. - Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index: The volatility of crude oil ETF declined this week, and the US dollar index fluctuated. As of September 12, the crude oil volatility ETF was 31.77, and the US dollar index was 97.6178. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts continued to rise due to weak employment data and higher - than - expected CPI data, causing the US dollar index to continue to decline [13]. - Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds: As of September 9, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 17,300 contracts week - on - week to 10,000 contracts, a weekly decline of 63.4%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 3,300 contracts to 71,800 contracts, a weekly decline of 4.3%. OPEC+ announced continued production increase, high - frequency data indicated the arrival of the off - season, and the unexpected inventory build - up of crude oil further weakened the bullish support, leading to insufficient confidence in going long [16]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - OPEC Overall Production: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensatory production - cut plans [21]. - OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation: According to the IEA's statistical criteria, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still had significant over - production, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared to the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensatory production - cut plans, and the concentrated production - cut will be extended to the first half of next year [25]. - Crude Oil Production of Saudi Arabia and Iran: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day. Sanctions and the Israel - Iran war have affected Iran's oil production [27]. - Crude Oil Supply in Russia: According to OPEC's statistical criteria, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA's statistical criteria, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [37]. - US Crude Oil Rig Count: As of the week of September 12, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 416, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 72 year - on - year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian Basin has decreased significantly, which may limit the upside potential of crude oil production [41]. - US Crude Oil Production: As of the week of September 5, US crude oil production rebounded marginally to 13.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 72,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. Although low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm and limited the upside potential of US oil production in the second half of the year, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well - production efficiency will prevent a sharp decline in production [44]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - Total US Petroleum Product Demand: There are signs of a decline in US petroleum product demand. Both the single - week and four - week average demand for refined products have decreased. As of the week of September 5, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.888 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 394,000 barrels per day but a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [48]. - US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data: In the week of September 5, US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day; consumption decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 20.888 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 16.818 million barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% to 94.9%; net imports increased by 668,000 barrels per day to 3.526 million barrels per day [52]. - US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption: The demand for refined products has seasonally declined. As of September 5, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 123,000 barrels per day to 8.927 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.58%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.813 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 2.01%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 1.772 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [54]. - US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 12, the gasoline crack spread was $20.7/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.49/barrel. The crude oil side is relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while the gasoline demand has peaked, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil demand is in a seasonal upward trend [57]. - European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads: As of September 12, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.28/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.19/barrel. After weeks of diesel inventory build - up, the support for refined products weakened, causing the crack spreads to decline. Recently, the distillate demand has entered a seasonal upward channel, and the crack spreads have recovered [61]. - Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation: China's crude oil demand is in the peak season. In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); in July, imports increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, China's imports of oil from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly [65]. - Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth. In August, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [69]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - US Crude Oil Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventories have rebounded to within the five - year range. As of September 5, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels from the previous week to 424.65 million barrels, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%; SPR inventories increased by 514,000 barrels to 405.22 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels to 23.857 million barrels [70]. - Inventory Changes: As of the week of September 5, US crude oil net imports increased by 668,000 barrels per day to 3.526 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 16.818 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% to 94.9% [74]. - WTI Monthly Spread: The WTI monthly spread remains in a backwardation structure. As of September 12, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.27/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.7/barrel. The monthly spread indicator continues to weaken. With the peak of US refined product demand and OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may continue to decline [77]. - Brent Monthly Spread: The Brent monthly spread also remains in a backwardation structure. As of September 12, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.45/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.15/barrel. The Brent monthly spread is stronger than the WTI monthly spread due to the expected tight supply in Europe caused by sanctions on Russian crude oil [80]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In August, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 105.36 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.72 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared to the previous month. Although the EIA has raised the demand forecast, the early end of OPEC+'s voluntary production - cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day will lead to greater supply pressure this year [84]. - Term Structure: This week, the US fundamental data shows that the peak - season demand has peaked, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent can support a stronger contango structure due to the strong diesel demand and good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain the contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [87].