2025年8月美国CPI数据点评：关税对美国通胀的影响不强

Inflation Data - In August 2025, the U.S. CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%[6] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[6] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is diminishing, with core goods inflation rising from 1.2% to 1.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by imported goods[6] - The cumulative price drop for all U.S. imports (excluding tariffs) was approximately 0.4% since March 2025, indicating that foreign exporters absorbed about 45% of the tariff costs[6] Economic Outlook - The trend of domestic inflation in the U.S. is expected to continue declining, with rent inflation dropping to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.7%[6] - If inflation rises moderately while the job market weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to strengthen, with a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2025[6][18] Risks - Risks include a hard landing for the U.S. economy, a significant rebound in inflation, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations[3]