降息箭在弦上，美债将如何演绎？

Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury market is showing significant sensitivity to economic cooling signals, with a notable decline in yields, particularly in the long end, where the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of the month[6] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points following the release of August non-farm payroll data, reflecting a strong correlation with the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index[7] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm employment numbers down by 910,000 over the past year, marking the largest revision since 2000, which indicates potential issues with statistical methods in the post-pandemic era[8] Labor Market Insights - The New York Fed's survey indicates that the probability of unemployed individuals finding a job within three months has decreased to 44.9%, while the probability of being unemployed within the next year has risen to 39.1%[8] - The market widely anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year due to the weakening labor market[8] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance has shifted to a more dovish tone, emphasizing employment downside risks and removing the "zero lower bound" language from policy statements, reinforcing the "maximum employment" goal[14] - Political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with President Trump publicly pressuring Powell and pushing for appointments of pro-Trump individuals to the Fed Board, raising concerns about the Fed's independence[15] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing for long-term rates reflects caution due to uncertainties surrounding policy, fiscal sustainability, and the Fed's independence, with long-term rates potentially offering attractive duration exposure as short-term rates decline rapidly[17] - Short-term Treasuries are viewed as a "safe haven" but carry structural risks due to their high reflection of rate cut expectations, which compresses yield potential[19]