尿素周报：低价反弹-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, under the situation of weak supply and demand of urea, both spot and futures prices declined. The high inventory of urea factories restricted the upward space of prices. Currently, the price has dropped to an acceptable low - price range in the market. After the futures sentiment improved, spot low - price purchases began, and the futures market started a technical rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the continuous decline of futures, the domestic demand was insufficient, and the spot market was weak, showing a continuous price - reduction trend. Since the weekend, the urea price continued to decline steadily, and new orders had not improved. However, there was an intention to purchase at the current price. Today, affected by the futures rebound, the low - price spot transactions were smooth [4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures on the disk continued to decline. By September 12, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on September 5. The weekly trading volume was 1,496.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 388.56 million tons; the open interest was 817.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146.72 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of September 15, the 01 contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 yuan/ton. On September 15, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,613, a week - on - week decrease of 154 [6][9] 3.3 Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From September 4 to September 10, the weekly output of urea was 1.2993 billion tons, an increase of 20.3 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and the average daily output was 185,600 tons. It is expected that the probability of output increase in the next cycle is relatively large. The coal price decreased, and the domestic liquefied natural gas price also declined last week. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, while the methanol spot price increased [13][15][16] 3.4 Urea Demand End - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat compared with the previous week. After the parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories decreased continuously this month. However, the fertilizer stockpiling was nearly 70% - 80%, and the subsequent increment was limited. The capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased, and the demand for urea increased insufficiently [18] 3.5 Inventory Data - As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.8 million tons. The port sample inventory was 549.4 million tons, a decrease of 71.5 million tons compared with the previous week [21] 3.6 International Market - India's NFL's urea import tender on September 2 determined a transaction of about 2.03 billion tons, and it is estimated that China's urea supply in this tender may be 700 - 800 million tons. As of September 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions showed different trends of increase and decrease [23]