矛盾不突出，传统旺季供需双增

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and both supply and demand are expected to increase during the traditional peak season in September. The overall trend will continue to follow the fluctuations of crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is a negative factor. In September 2025, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is expected to reach 1.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 430,000 tons (41% year - on - year increase) and a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons (17% month - on - month increase). From January to September 2025, the total production of refinery asphalt is expected to be about 10.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.61 million tons (18% year - on - year increase) [4]. - Demand: It is a positive factor. The demand release is less than expected. Some demand in the north has slightly increased, and the market is optimistic about September's demand. In the south, the reduction of rainfall has led to a slight recovery in demand. It is expected that the peak season will not be prosperous this year [4]. - Inventory: It is neutral. This week, the asphalt factory inventory has shown an accumulation trend, especially in the northeast. The social inventory has shown a destocking trend, especially in Shandong [4]. - Cost: It is oscillating. International oil prices first fell and then rebounded due to factors such as changes in US crude oil inventory, OPEC+ production plans, and geopolitical events [4]. - Investment Viewpoint: It is oscillating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with both supply and demand increasing in September, and the general trend follows crude oil fluctuations [4]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity [4]. Price - There are charts showing the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8]. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - Spread: There are charts showing the asphalt cracking spread and the spread between asphalt and coking materials from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16]. - Basis: There are charts showing the basis of asphalt in the main regions from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. Supply - Production Scheduling Expectation: There are charts showing the monthly production scheduling and output of asphalt in China from 2022 to 2025 [22][24][26]. - Capacity Utilization: There are charts showing the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2019 to 2025 [31][34][35]. - Maintenance Loss Volume: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Cost and Profit - Production Gross Margin: There is a chart showing the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [41][42]. - Diluted Asphalt: There are charts showing the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [45][46][47]. Inventory - Factory Inventory: There are charts showing the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [50][52][53]. - Social Inventory: There are charts showing the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][56]. Demand - Shipment Volume: There are charts showing the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59]. - Downstream Operating Rate: There are charts showing the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025 [61][62][63]. - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate: There are charts showing the operating rates of modified asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [67][68].