银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year has been further consolidated due to the mild rebound of the US CPI in August, the disappointing non - farm payroll data in August, and the significant annual downward revision of previous data, which highlights the fragility of the US labor market. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the continuous concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the precious metals market, during the day, the outer - market precious metals fluctuated narrowly near historical highs, with London gold trading around $3641 and London silver around $42.2. Driven by the outer - market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.1% at 831.6 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed up 0.88% at 10,017 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index was consolidating at a low level, trading around 97.56 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly, trading around 4.07% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was consolidating at a high level, trading around 7.123 [6] Important Information - US macro: The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in September in the US was 4.8% (expected 4.7%, previous value 4.80%), and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September was 55.4 (expected 58, previous value 58.2) [7] - Trump administration dynamics: On the 12th, Trump urged the US Court of Appeals to approve the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook again. Trump also said that his patience with Russian President Putin was "rapidly running out" and threatened to impose new economic sanctions on Moscow because the efforts to mediate the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations had been blocked [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut in October is 16.0%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 81.0%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.0%. The market is betting on interest rate cuts in September, October, and December this year [7] Logical Analysis - The mild rebound of the US CPI in August, combined with the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the significant downward revision of previous data, highlights the fragility of the US labor market, further consolidating the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Conservative investors can consider waiting and seeing for the time being; aggressive investors can consider going long on dips against the 5 - day moving average, paying attention to setting exit points and position management [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see for the time being [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, the relationship between real yields and precious metals, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the domestic - foreign price difference, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and the break - even inflation rate [15][17][21]