Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - Important News: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - Logic Analysis: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - Trading Strategy: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - Market Review: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - Important News: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - Logic Analysis: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - Trading Strategy: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - Market Review: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - Important News: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - Important News: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - Logic Analysis: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - Important News: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - Logic Analysis: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - Market Review: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - Important News: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - Logic Analysis: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - Trading Strategy: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - Market Review: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - Important News: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - Logic Analysis: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - Trading Strategy: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - Market Review: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - Important News: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - Logic Analysis: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - Trading Strategy: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - Important News: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - Logic Analysis: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - Trading Strategy: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - Important News: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - Trading Strategy: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - Market Review: No specific market review information provided. - Important News: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - Logic Analysis: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - Important News: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - Logic Analysis: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - Market Review: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - Important News: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - Trading Strategy: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250915
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-15 12:16