战术性资产配置周度点评（20250914）：宽松在望：美联储降息预期持续强化-20250915

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight position in A-shares, a neutral position in US Treasuries and gold, and an underweight position in the US dollar [1][11][12] - The report expresses optimism about A-shares due to improved economic outlook, strong government support for capital market development, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [11][12] - The report highlights that the US labor market's cooling has reinforced expectations for a "preventive" easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with the market fully pricing in a rate cut in September [9][11] Group 2 - The report indicates that multiple factors are likely to support the continued performance of Chinese assets, maintaining a tactical overweight view on A-shares [12][14] - The report notes that the US Treasury market is expected to have a neutral tactical allocation due to the marginal cooling of the US economy and labor market, which has strengthened expectations for easing monetary policy [12][14] - The report suggests that gold prices may benefit from rising geopolitical tensions and adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations, maintaining a neutral tactical view on gold [12][14] Group 3 - The report states that the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts are likely to weaken the interest returns on the US dollar, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar [13][14] - The report provides a tactical asset allocation summary, indicating an overweight in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, while maintaining neutral positions in European and Indian equities [14][15] - The report outlines the performance of various asset classes, with A-shares showing a year-to-date increase of 15.48% and a weekly increase of 1.52% [7][21]