冠通期货铜周度策略展望-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: The recent US CPI and PPI data are within market expectations, having no significant impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the US employment market data is below expectations, showing weakness. The market has priced in three interest - rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year. The weakening US dollar under the interest - rate cut expectations supports the upward movement of copper prices [2][5]. - Supply aspect: As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. Factory maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and smelter maintenance, September's electrolytic copper production is expected to drop significantly [2][5]. - Demand aspect: As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, and high prices are suppressing demand, starting a inventory - building trend [2][5]. - Overall view: This week, the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations are weakening the US dollar and pushing up copper prices. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting copper prices. The demand side is optimistic about the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise and are less likely to fall. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US August CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, and 2.9% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations. - The US August PPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and fell 0.1% month - on - month, also below expectations. - The US initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening employment market [11]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The highest price was 81,190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 79,400 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.23%, and the interval increase was 1.15% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of September 15, the average spot premium in East China was 95 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 25 yuan/ton. With more imported and domestic copper supplies, high prices reduced market purchases, putting pressure on spot premiums [19]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of September 15, the weekly change rate of LME copper was 1.22%, closing at $10,068/ton. The LME copper spot discount strengthened slightly. The increasing Fed interest - rate cut expectations supported the rise of LME copper [24]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, up 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. From January to July, the cumulative import was 17.314 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year. As of September 12, the inventory at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. - On September 8, 2025, an accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended all operations [29]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of September 12, the spot TC was - $41.42/tonne dry, and the RC was - 4.16 cents/lb, remaining weakly stable. The mid - year long - term contract negotiation set TC/RC at $0/tonne dry and 0 cents/lb. High sulfuric acid prices support smelter profits, but seasonal maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure, with tight refined copper supply expected [33]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and maintenance, September's production is expected to drop by 52,500 tons to 1.119 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 11.42%. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, down from the previous month but up 2.4% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.536 million tons, down 2.1% year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - German officials called on Europe to stop the large - scale flow of scrap copper to China. In 2025, 23.18% of China's scrap copper imports from January to July were from Europe, and the new policy will reduce imports from Europe. - In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,100 tons, higher than expected, but imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, and scrap copper resources in other regions were also tight [42]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen [47]. 3.10 Copper Products - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 63.02%, down 0.99% month - on - month but up 1.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the estimated cumulative production of refined copper rods was 8.484 million tons, up 8.64% year - on - year. - During the off - season of air - conditioners, weak terminal demand did not support an increase in orders for copper tube enterprises. This week, copper tube production decreased, and the production schedule remained stable [52]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, up 18.2% year - on - year. From January to July, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,806 hours, 188 hours less than the same period last year. From January to June, power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% year - on - year, a record high for the same period. Power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively [56]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 9.3% year - on - year. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 19.5% year - on - year. The completed area was 276.94 million square meters, down 17.0% year - on - year [60]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of total vehicle sales [65]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of September 12, LME copper inventory started to decline, recording 154,000 tons, down 2.53% from the previous week and 1.23% from the previous month. COMEX copper inventory accumulation slowed down, recording 310,500 tons, up 1.68% from the previous week and 16.38% from the previous month. - On September 11, the total spot inventory of copper in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 82,300 tons, down 3,300 tons from the 4th and 1,500 tons from the 8th. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 77,000 tons, and Guangdong was 5,300 tons, both showing a downward trend. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, up 6,633 tons from the previous week, and high prices suppressed demand, starting a low - level inventory - building trend [70][75].