科技行业周报：推理应用驱动算力投资，中美博弈持续利好国产半导体-20250915

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong positive outlook on the AI application-driven demand for computing power, indicating a sustained high growth trajectory in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical growth in AI applications, suggesting that both domestic and international AI applications are reaching a tipping point for widespread adoption. Investors are advised to select high-quality targets and focus on companies with consistent performance [2]. - The ongoing U.S.-China competition is expected to benefit domestic semiconductor companies, as the demand for computing power continues to rise [2][6]. Summary by Sections Communication Capability Upgrade Opportunities - Oracle's recent performance showed a significant increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO), up 359% year-on-year to $455 billion, reflecting strong long-term demand from AI giants like OpenAI and Meta [3]. - Broadcom's earnings report has heightened interest in XPU, with increased demand from major clients like Google for TPU and the announcement of a $10 billion order from a new customer [3]. - The expected shipment of optical modules is projected to exceed 10 million units for 1.6T and 40 million units for 800G in 2026, suggesting robust growth in this segment [3]. Cabinet Communication Scale-up Opportunities - The trend towards GPU scale-up in next-generation training clusters is leading to the adoption of customized PCIe switches for improved chip interconnectivity [4]. - A specific U.S. company is expected to significantly increase its 5nm wafer production in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for domestic competitors as well [4]. Domestic Computing Power Supply Chain - The report notes that the domestic computing power supply chain is in a tight balance, with critical bottlenecks being gradually addressed, which is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the latter half of the year and into next year [6]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 32 entities to its control list, which may further accelerate the upgrade of domestic computing power [6]. NAND Storage Price Increase Opportunities - SanDisk announced a 10% price increase for NAND Flash modules, with domestic leader Yangtze Memory expected to follow suit in Q4 2025 [9]. - The report highlights a significant price increase for consumer SSD modules, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand [9]. iPhone Supply Chain Expectation Adjustments - Following the release of the iPhone 17, market expectations for overall shipments have been revised from a 9% decline to flat year-on-year growth, indicating a more optimistic outlook [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy rating for several companies, including Cambricon (688256), SMIC (0981.HK), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK), among others, indicating strong potential in the domestic computing power sector [13].