Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The September USDA supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to lower exports, resulting in the ending inventory of U.S. soybeans in the 25/26 season at 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing a certain bearish impact. However, the balance sheet of the new U.S. soybean crop remains tight, supporting the downside of the U.S. soybean futures. Meanwhile, recent rumors of China - U.S. trade negotiations have had a certain bullish impact on the U.S. soybean futures. After a short - term decline due to loss data and short - selling, the U.S. soybean futures rebounded strongly. In addition, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost of U.S. soybeans and the premium, it is expected to support the downside of the domestic soybean meal futures. [7] - In China, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high, and oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods, putting pressure on the spot basis. Overall, the domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be supported by the import cost and will mainly move in a range. Future focus should be on policy changes between China and the U.S. and between China and Canada. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data on Basis - For soybean meal, the basis data in different regions on September 12, 2025 are as follows: in Dalian, it is 41; in Tianjin, - 39; in Rizhao, 29; in Zhangjiagang, 29; in Dongguan, - 99; in Zhanjiang, - 59; in Fangcheng, 9. For rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the basis is 56, with a change of - 28. [5] Spread Data - The M1 - RM1 spread is 259, with a change of - 20; the RM1 - 5 spread is 125, with a change of - 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of the main futures contracts is 27. [6] Import and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan is 42.00. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium shows a certain trend, and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market is 305 yuan per ton, with a change of 5. [6] - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented, as well as the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises and the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills. [6] 开机和压榨情况 - The opening rate and soybean crushing volume data of major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented. [6]
蛋白数据日报-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-15 12:29