航运衍生品数据日报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The European shipping market is expected to see the cargo volume reach the bottom in October and turn around in November based on EPMI data. From late September to late October, shipping companies will compete for cargo, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy during the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is predicted that the offline freight rates will drop to the May low in late October, and shipping companies will start to support prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November. The suspension of some shipping capacities during the National Day holiday, which will not resume after the holiday, has limited impact on the market due to the low cargo volume [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1398, down 3.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1125, down 2.07%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West increased by 8.27%, SCFIS - US West decreased by 3.26%, SCFI - US East increased by 7.61%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 12.24%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 11.68%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 11.82% [6]. - Derivative Contracts: For shipping derivative contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., most showed a downward trend. For example, EC2506 decreased by 0.92%, EC2608 decreased by 0.31%, EC2510 decreased by 5.02%, etc. [6]. - Contract Positions: The positions of some contracts increased. For example, the position of EC2606 increased by 6, EC2410 increased by 2187, etc. [6]. - Monthly Spread: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 1.3, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 38.3, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread decreased by 60.9 [6]. 3.2 Market News - All eyes are on the meeting between Beisente and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Madrid on Monday, but expectations should be moderate, with the best - case scenario being no escalation of the current situation. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has adjusted its US route network to deal with the port fees that the US is about to impose on Chinese - built or - operated ships and stated that it will absorb the costs without passing them on to customers. US President Donald Trump plans to urge G7 countries to impose a 50% - 100% high - tariff on India and China's purchase of Russian oil. The US is experiencing a stagflation - like situation for the first time in forty years [7]. 3.3 EC Market - Market Conditions: The market is in a downward trend. The spot prices in September, such as GEMINI, QA, PA, and MSC, have all declined. The freight rate center of PAK in the market in late September is 1750 [8]. - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to short in October and conduct a 10 - 12 reverse spread [9].