高低硫均偏弱震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for fuel oil is weak and volatile, and the arbitrage and option strategies are to wait and see [6][7] Group 2: Core View of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur near - end inventory remains at a high level, suppressing market prices. Supply is affected by factors such as Russian refinery facilities' recovery and changes in export from different regions. Demand from power generation has subsided, and feedstock demand support is not obvious [5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates at a low level. Supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: High - sulfur near - end inventory is high, suppressing prices. Russian refineries are gradually recovering, Middle - East high - sulfur export increases after power - generation demand fades, Mexican high - sulfur export decreases, power - generation demand disappears, and feedstock demand support is weak [5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates at a low level. Supply increases, and downstream demand lacks a driver. Logistics of low - sulfur heavy - raw materials may change, and attention should be paid to low - sulfur quota adjustment and issuance [5] - Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to near - end high - low warehouse receipts and low - sulfur quota issuance [7] - Options: Wait and see [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Supply - side Factors - Russia: Energy facilities are continuously attacked, but some refineries are recovering. Near - end high - sulfur export has increased [10][11] - Mexico: High - sulfur export is expected to decline as new secondary devices in refineries are put into operation [15][16] - Iran: Sanctions from the US continue, but high - sulfur export in the Middle - East has increased after power - generation demand fades [20][22] - Nigeria: The RFCC device in Dangote refinery operates unstably, and low - sulfur export tenders are continuously issued [34][35] - Middle - East Al - Zour refinery: Stable operation leads to expected stable high - level low - sulfur export, with increased supply to the pan - Singapore area [39][41] - South Sudan: Low - sulfur heavy - raw materials are stable, and export to the pan - Singapore area is expected to further increase [42][43] - China: The output of bonded low - sulfur fuel oil is stable, and attention should be paid to the issuance of the third - batch export quota and quota conversion [47][49] - Demand - side Factors - High - sulfur fuel oil: Power - generation demand has disappeared, but the volume of high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering reached the highest level since IMO2020 in July, and feedstock demand has slight support [23][25][26] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: There is no specific driver for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable [44][46] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Price and Spread - Fuel oil spot prices and spreads between different types of fuel oil and Brent crude oil are presented in various charts [52][54][57] - High - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, and low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads are also shown [59][66] - Natural gas - fuel oil price ratio and cross - region freight rates are provided [76][79] - Singapore bunkering spreads are analyzed [82][83] - Inventory Structure - Inventory data of fuel oil in Singapore, ARA, Fujairah, Japan, and the US are presented [86][87][89][90][91] - Inventory structures in Northwest Europe and the US Gulf are also shown [93][96] - Terminal Sales Structure - In July, Singapore's marine fuel bunkering volume increased. High - sulfur marine fuel bunkering volume and its proportion increased, while low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering volume decreased slightly and its proportion decreased [100]