冠通期货每周核心策略推荐-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies and viewpoints for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors [10][13][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Trading Logic: Crude oil is exiting the seasonal travel peak. US oil and gasoline inventories have unexpectedly increased, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels starting in October 2025, increasing the pressure on Q4 crude oil. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. The US non - farm payroll data shows weakness, raising concerns about oil demand. However, the sharp drop in oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on potential sanctions against Russian oil. Also, compensation plans from countries like Iraq ease the supply increase pressure [10]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Short - term downward space is limited; in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily gradually take profits on short positions and exit the market [10]. Asphalt - Trading Logic: The asphalt production rate increased by 6.8 percentage points last week but is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The expected domestic asphalt production in September is 2.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). The downstream construction rates mostly increased, but are still restricted by funds and weather. The refinery inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The sharp drop in crude oil prices weakens the cost support for asphalt [10]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Short - term downward space is limited [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Take profits on short positions and then wait and see [10]. PVC - Trading Logic: The PVC production rate increased by 2.81 percentage points, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream production rate continued to increase but is still lower than in previous years. India has raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from China, reducing China's PVC export expectations in the second half of the year. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policy implementation [10]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Limited upward space [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. L&PP - Trading Logic: The plastic production rate dropped to around 81%, and the PP production rate dropped to around 79.5%, both at relatively low levels. The downstream production rate of polyolefins increased slightly but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation. The agricultural film market is entering the peak season, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved [10]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Range - bound operation [10]. - Operation Suggestion: Trade within the range [10]. Copper - Trading Logic: US CPI and PPI data are within market expectations, while employment data is weak, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts and putting pressure on the US dollar, which supports copper prices. The inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports increased by 14,000 tons last week. TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. Factory maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and the supply of refined copper will remain tight. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper will significantly decrease in September, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to drop sharply. The apparent consumption of copper is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has slightly increased [13]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Bullish and volatile [13]. - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the actual situation of Fed rate cuts [13]. Urea - Trading Logic: The urea futures and spot prices have been falling. Urea factories have resumed production in the past two weeks, and production has recovered. The production load of compound fertilizer factories has increased, but the demand is still insufficient, and inventory has continued to increase, which is much higher than in previous years, restricting the upward movement of urea prices [16]. - Bull - Bear Viewpoint: Technical rebound [16]. - Operation Suggestion: There is no specific operation suggestion mentioned other than the analysis of the technical rebound [16].