华宝期货有色金属周报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: With macro - level interest rate cut expectations and support from the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be mainly strong in the near term, with strengthened downside support. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting this week [9]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. With interest rate cut expectations and the "Golden September and Silver October" season, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. However, medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on the upside [11]. - Tin: In the short term, the tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 81,060, up 920 (1.15%) from September 5. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 80,990, up 1,025 (1.28%) [7]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 21,120, up 425 (2.05%) from September 5. The average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 21,050, up 370 (1.79%) [7]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 22,305, up 150 (0.68%) from September 5. The price of zinc ingots was 22,236, up 430 (1.97%) [7]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 273,950, up 1,490 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 273,250, up 1,000 (0.37%) [7]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 121,980, up 670 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of 1 nickel was 123,430, up 1,390 (1.14%) [7]. 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices were strong. Macroeconomic factors such as a surge in US initial jobless claims and moderate inflation increase may lead the Fed to restart interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly, the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly, the cost is stable, and downstream demand is recovering. As of September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 637,000 tons, and the de - stocking inflection point needs further observation [9]. - View: Expected to be mainly strong in the near term [9]. - Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated. The SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased, and domestic zinc mine production profits were compressed. Smelters have strong production enthusiasm due to high profits. The galvanizing start - up rate increased, and zinc ingot inventories increased. The domestic consumption lacks obvious "peak season" characteristics [10]. - View: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with medium - to long - term supply pressure [11]. - Tin - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Myanmar's tin production progress is slow. Supply shortages in Yunnan and Jiangxi have led to a decline in smelter start - up rates. Downstream demand is average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. - View: Short - term weak supply and demand [13]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan was 650 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, up 10 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 75.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 week - on - week and 1.13 year - on - year [17]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of September 12 was 4254,500 tons, up 858,700 week - on - week and 1,310,700 year - on - year; the departure volume was 4673,100 tons, up 1,038,000 week - on - week and 1,462,300 year - on - year [20]. - Alumina - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3,060 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 80 week - on - week and 905 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,902 yuan/ton, up 0.8 week - on - week and 41.3 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 43.39 yuan/ton, down 89.49 week - on - week and 1,026.97 year - on - year [23]. - Electrolytic Aluminum - Cost and price difference: The total cost was 16,427.69 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 143.57 week - on - week and 1,139.54 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year [25]. - Start - up rate: The start - up rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy showed different changes in the week of September 11 [29][30]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 69,500 tons in the week of September 11, down 5,600 week - on - week and up 33,200 year - on - year; the total bonded area inventory was 92,500 tons, down 3,600 week - on - week and up 46,000 year - on - year; the social inventory was 637,000 tons in the week of September 15, up 6,000 week - on - week and down 111,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 107,600 tons, down 13,800 week - on - week and up 3,900 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory was 128,499 tons in the week of September 12, up 4,421 week - on - week and down 150,672 year - on - year; the LME inventory was 485,275 tons in the week of September 11, up 600 week - on - week and down 339,075 year - on - year [35][36]. - Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in different periods and regions showed different changes in the week of September 12 [41][44]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [45]. Zinc - Zinc Concentrate - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 72 week - on - week and down 3,784 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, down 50 week - on - week and up 2,400 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was 98.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.5 week - on - week [52]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 218 week - on - week and down 3,376 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 2,149.17 yuan/ton, down 560.21 week - on - week and down 2,627.64 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 week - on - week and up 130,000 year - on - year [55]. - Refined Zinc - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory in SMM's seven regions was 160,600 tons in the week of September 15, up 8,500 week - on - week and up 46,100 year - on - year; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons in the week of September 11, unchanged week - on - week and up 2,500 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 94,649 tons in the week of September 12, up 7,617 week - on - week and up 9,037 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 50,525 tons in the week of September 11, down 3,525 week - on - week and down 181,900 year - on - year [58]. - Galvanizing - Production, start - up rate, and inventory: The production in the week of September 11 was 332,345 tons, up 43,245 week - on - week and down 10,010 year - on - year; the start - up rate was 56.06%, up 5.98 week - on - week and down 1.68 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 13,860 tons, up 1,190 week - on - week and up 1,270 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 375,700 tons, down 21,200 week - on - week and down 56,500 year - on - year [61]. - Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread - Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [64]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [68]. Tin - Refined Tin - Production and start - up rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.138 million tons in the week of September 12, down 0.1 week - on - week and down 0.0375 year - on - year; the combined start - up rate was 28.48%, down 20.63 week - on - week and down 7.74 year - on - year [73]. - Tin Ingot - Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 7,897 tons in the week of September 12, up 124 week - on - week and down 1,602 year - on - year; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 9,389 tons, up 108 week - on - week and down 1,419 year - on - year [76]. - Tin Concentrate - Processing fee: The processing fees of tin concentrate in different regions and grades were flat week - on - week and down year - on - year in the week of September 12 [78]. - Import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level of tin ore was 8,842.8 yuan/ton in the week of September 11, down 14,028.26 week - on - week and down 7,146.94 year - on - year [79]. - Spot - Average price: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year in the week of September 12 [84].