豆粕玉米大跌,鸡蛋劲升
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-15 13:15
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend, with some products rising and others falling. For example, egg prices are rising, while soybean meal and corn prices are falling [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal prices have dropped significantly due to reduced concerns about tight soybean supply in the fourth - quarter after Sino - US economic and trade talks, and increased production and inventory from high - pressure oil mill operations [1]. - Corn prices have also fallen sharply as new corn is about to be concentratedly launched, leading to a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Egg prices have risen strongly because of the demand for double - festival stocking and the reduction of production capacity through increased culling of old laying hens [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has declined significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve US soybean exports to China, alleviating supply concerns. High domestic oil mill crushing volumes have increased inventory, pressuring prices. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3080 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has risen strongly due to double - festival stocking demand. However, high egg - laying hen inventory and the inflow of low - price cold - storage eggs may limit the upside. The strategy is to close short positions and go long lightly near support, with support at 3070 and resistance at 3200 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has risen steadily. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and the decrease in production, along with domestic double - festival stocking demand, support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 9310 and resistance at 9446 [6]. 3.2.4 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has risen steadily. Higher external CBOT soybean oil prices and increased domestic double - festival stocking demand boost prices, despite high supply. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8342 and resistance at 8400 [8]. 3.2.5 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has slightly adjusted after a strong rise last week. Positive factors such as active procurement in the western region, reduced seasonal fruit supply, and double - festival stocking support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8239 and resistance at 8400 [11]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has dropped significantly due to lower - than - expected demand. High inventory and weak terminal demand during the double - festival stocking season pressure prices. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly, with support at 10700 and resistance at 10950 [12][14]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar has rebounded steadily. Higher external prices, double - festival stocking demand, and low inventory support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 5540 and resistance at 5594 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has dropped significantly. The upcoming large - scale launch of new corn and long - position liquidations have led to price declines. The strategy is to go short lightly, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2188 [17]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has rebounded steadily. Although there is an expectation of increased new cotton production, supply is tight before new cotton is launched. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the 10 - day moving average can be broken, with support at 13855 and resistance at 13985 [20]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded slightly after a decline. High supply in September and weak demand, except for potential double - festival stocking, limit price increases. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13120 and resistance at 13350 [21][23].