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信用债ETF双周报(20250901-20250912):第二批科创债ETF发行中,可转债ETF企稳-20250915
Hengtai Securities·2025-09-15 13:02
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond index leads the market, while the science - innovation bond index and the benchmark market - making credit bond index continue to decline with negative stage returns. Convertible bond - related ETFs lead the gains, and short - term financing ETFs achieve positive returns in the current period, while the current yields of other credit bond ETFs are negative [2][8]. - The second batch of science - innovation bond ETFs are being issued. The issuance of bond index sample bonds in the primary market shows differentiation, and the trading volume of convertible bond - related index component bonds is the largest in the secondary market [2][23]. - Looking ahead, the equity market is favored in the long term. Although convertible bond - related ETFs may fluctuate in the short term, they are still favored in the long term. It is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and CSI Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Bond Index Market Conditions: The convertible bond index outperforms, with the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index rising 1.02% and 0.54% respectively in the past two weeks, and 15.81% and 11.32% year - to - date. Most pure - bond indices decline due to market volatility and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. - Bond ETF Market Conditions: Convertible bond - related ETFs lead the gains, with Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) rising 0.89% and 0.44% respectively. Short - term financing ETF (511360.SH) gets a positive return of 0.04%. Most credit bond ETFs are in a discount state, indicating weak market sentiment [10]. - Bond ETF Unit Net Value: The unit net value of convertible bond - related ETFs shows an upward - fluctuating trend, not falling below 13 yuan in the past two weeks. The net value of science - innovation bond - related ETFs fluctuates downward, and that of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs also declines [13]. - Bond ETF Fund Flows: Short - term financing ETFs have continuous net inflows. The subscription scale of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) decreases by 7.26 billion yuan. The trading volumes of science - innovation bond ETFs and short - term financing ETFs are relatively large, and the turnover rates of some science - innovation bond ETFs are high [16]. Credit Bond ETF Overview - Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Short - Term Financing ETF (511360.SH) have scales exceeding 60 billion yuan. The growth rate of science - innovation bond - related ETFs slows down, with a scale of 123.646 billion yuan. The scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs ranks first, at 124.602 billion yuan [20]. - The annualized yields of Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and Shanghai Convertible Bond ETF (511180.SH) are 25.38% and 18.24% respectively. The highest annualized yield among pure - bond ETFs is 1.53% for Short - Term Financing ETF (511360.SH), and all science - innovation bond - related ETFs have negative annualized yields since July [20]. Credit Bond ETF Application, Issuance, and Dynamics On August 20, fourteen fund companies collectively submitted 14 science - innovation bond ETFs for the second batch, which were approved on September 8 and issued on September 12, tracking high - credit - rating science - innovation bond indices [23]. Primary Market - Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds: Short - term financing and Shanghai market - making corporate bonds have the largest issuance volume and scale, at 69.163 billion yuan and 65.424 billion yuan respectively. The weighted average coupon rate of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index sample bonds is 2.34%, ranking first [27]. - Primary Issuance of Important Bond Index Sample Bonds This Year: In early September, the issuance of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index sample bonds accelerated, with most sample bonds having higher issuance rates and shorter terms. The issuance of important bond index sample bonds slowed down, but the issuance scale of Shanghai Urban Investment Bond sample bonds was close to that of last month, while the issuance scale of CSI Short - Term Financing sample bonds was only 22.91% of last month [28]. Secondary Market - Trading of Important Bond Index Component Bonds: The trading volume of convertible bond - related index component bonds is the largest, with a total of 926.721 billion yuan for the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index and the Shanghai Investment - Grade Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index. The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index component bonds are traded at a premium, with a closing deviation of - 7.23bp [33]. - Spreads of Important Credit Bond Indices: The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index has the highest credit spread, but it is less than 36bp. The yields of several important bond indices have been rising oscillatingly, and the valuation yield of the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond Index is significantly higher than others [36]. Credit Events and Market News - Postponed/Cancelled Bond Issuances: In the past two weeks, 11 bonds with a planned issuance amount of 6.133 billion yuan were cancelled, including 8 for the inter - bank market and 3 for the Shanghai Stock Exchange [44]. - Market News: The Ministry of Finance will advance the quota of new local government debt in 2026, use the debt - resolution quota in advance, and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. As of the end of June 2025, over 60% of financing platforms have exited [45][47]. Investment Recommendations Considering the fundamentals, capital situation, and stock - bond market, it is recommended to pay attention to Convertible Bond ETF (511380.SH) and CSI Short - Term Financing (511360.SH) [48].