能化：地缘扰动原油反弹，多数能化日内再震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - Strategy: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - Strategy: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - Logic: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - Strategy: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - Logic: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - Strategy: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - Logic: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - Logic: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - Strategy: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]