宏观经济专题：供给偏强，需求略弱

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]