兼评8月经济数据：内需续弱，政策加码窗口临近

Consumption - Retail sales growth continued to slow, with August year-on-year growth down 0.3 percentage points to 3.4%[2] - The multiplier effect of the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods may decline by 23%-32%, from 8.7 times to 5.9-6.7 times[2][18] Production - Industrial production in August increased by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Service sector production weakened slightly, down 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% year-on-year in August[3][21] Fixed Asset Investment - Real estate investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year in August, with a monthly decline of 19.5%[4][22] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, marking five consecutive months of slowdown[4][27] Economic Outlook - Internal demand pressure is increasing, with expectations of policy support in Q4 to counteract economic slowdown[5][35] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts, a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, and support for service consumption and real estate[5][35] Risks - Risks include potential policy changes that may be less than expected and the possibility of an unexpected recession in the U.S. economy[6][36]