粕类日报：不确定性增多，盘面回落压力增加-20250915

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pulse Daily Report - September 15, 2025: Uncertainties Increase, Pressure on the Disk to Fall" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The recent soybean and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by macro - factors and operate in a volatile manner. The domestic soybean meal disk may have limited deep - fall space in the future, and the rapeseed meal has certain price support. [4][9] - It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips, go long on the MRM05 spread on dips, and buy call options. [10] Group 4: Market Quotes Summary - Futures and Spot Quotes: Today, the US soybean disk declined slightly. The domestic soybean meal disk fell significantly due to potential supply improvement, and the rapeseed meal disk also dropped significantly affected by the sharp decline in soybean meal. For example, the soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3042, down 37; the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed at 2504, down 27. [4] - Monthly Spread: The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined significantly. For instance, the soybean meal 15 spread was 238 today, down 21 from yesterday; the rapeseed meal 15 spread was 111 today, down 14 from yesterday. [4] - Cross - Variety Spread: The cross - variety spreads also changed. The current value of the soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 538, down 10 from yesterday; the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.753, up 0.05 from yesterday. [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - US Soybeans: The carry - over stock in the old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a small adjustment, with a slight decrease in yield per unit but a slight increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. [5] - South American Soybeans: The old - crop supply - demand in South America was relatively loose. The soybean production in major exporting countries was expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. [5] - International Soybean Meal: The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was obvious. The soybean crushing volume in major producing areas was expected to increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly. [5] - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal supply was relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient market supply. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. The rapeseed meal demand gradually weakened, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, and there was still supply pressure. [7] Group 6: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but there was no clear information. The market was still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, as the market gradually stabilized, macro - disturbances decreased. [8] Group 7: Logic Analysis - Soybean Meal: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production changed little, and the inventory pressure still existed. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price pressure also existed. [9] - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. [9] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips. [10] - Arbitrage Trading: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. [10] - Options Trading: Buy call options. [10]