金信期货日刊-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall carbon element supply remains abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream hot metal. The prices of coking coal and coke are still significantly affected by the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy, with high volatility. One should seize the opportunities of the oscillating upward trend [2][3][4]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. - The price of gold is expected to continue rising in the short term [11]. - The iron ore market may be supported by the start of restocking, and it should be treated with an oscillating mindset [14]. - The glass market should be viewed from a low - buying perspective as it rebounded strongly today [18]. - The palm oil market should be treated with an oscillating downward view due to high inventory pressure and lack of demand [22]. - The pulp market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - On September 15, 2025, coking coal futures rose for the third consecutive day, with a gain of 4.40%, closing at 1,187 yuan. The tightening of safety inspections in Shanxi may limit production release, but steel mill profits have limited recovery, hot metal production is at a medium - low level, coke demand is insufficient, and coking plant inventories are high, resulting in low procurement willingness. Coal mine supply disturbances may last until around National Day, but downstream procurement of coking coal and coke has slowed down, and speculative demand has weakened [2][3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures reached a new high in this round of rebound after rising and then falling. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year in August. The Ministry of Commerce launched anti - dumping investigations on analog chips and anti - discrimination investigations on integrated circuits. It is expected to continue to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The short - term trend of gold is upward. The US non - farm payroll data in August was still below expectations, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is relatively high, which is beneficial to gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The start of restocking may support the raw material. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range. The supply side has stable shipments, steel mills are showing signs of复产, hot metal is expected to remain at a high level, and steel mills may restock before National Day [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, the glass market rebounded strongly today. The daily melting volume is basically stable, factory inventories have declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to restocking before the peak season [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The recent cumulative increase in the oil market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to continue chasing up has decreased, and the pressure of profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with an oscillating downward view [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today, and port inventories started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but there is no sign of improvement yet. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [25].