2025两网公司中长期债券发行加速

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The issuance scale of medium- and long-term bonds by State Grid and Southern Grid in 2025 will far exceed historical levels, with expected investments exceeding 825 billion yuan, an increase of 220 billion yuan compared to 2024 [2][12] - The financial indicators show that State Grid has a lower debt ratio, while Southern Grid exhibits slightly higher profitability quality [3][42] - The establishment of settlement companies by both grids aims to address the renewable energy subsidy gap through specialized financing [4][51] Summary by Sections 1. Bond Issuance Scale - In 2025, the bond issuance scale of State Grid and Southern Grid will significantly surpass historical levels, with State Grid expected to issue 1.46 trillion yuan in bonds during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is more than the total of the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans combined [2][20] - For the first eight months of 2025, State Grid's bond issuance reached 439.5 billion yuan, a 56% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [21][24] - Southern Grid's bond issuance from 2002 to August 2025 totaled 968.8 billion yuan, with 406.3 billion yuan issued during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [33][34] 2. Financial Indicators Comparison - As of the first half of 2025, State Grid's total assets reached 5.96 trillion yuan with a debt ratio of 54.2%, while Southern Grid's assets were 1.39 trillion yuan with a debt ratio of 60.6% [3][42] - In 2024, State Grid's operating revenue and net profit were 391.93 billion yuan and 77.3 billion yuan, respectively, which were 4.6 and 3.9 times that of Southern Grid [3][45] 3. Establishment of Settlement Companies - The establishment of Beijing and Guangzhou Renewable Energy Development Settlement Service Companies aims to address the subsidy gap for renewable energy through market-oriented financing solutions [4][53] - The subsidy gap for renewable energy has been estimated at approximately 400 billion yuan as of the end of 2021 [4][51] 4. Investment Recommendations - Given the acceleration of capital expenditures in the grid sector in 2025, the report recommends focusing on various renewable energy operators and companies involved in the transformation of thermal power to renewable energy [5][54]