宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that policy expectations are fermenting, leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. - The rebar futures price oscillated higher due to the enhanced policy expectations from the downward economic data in August and the strong boost from coking coal and coke. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar remained weak. Although the weekly output decreased, the reduction during the peak season was not strong, and inventory continued to increase, with limited relief of supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand was poor, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory due to policy expectations and strong raw materials, but the fundamentals did not improve in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices maintained an oscillatory and stable state under the dominance of optimistic sentiment, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The economic data in August declined, enhancing policy expectations. Coupled with the strong boost from coking coal and coke, the rebar futures price oscillated higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weak, with limited relief of supply pressure and poor demand, insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory, but the fundamentals did not improve, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices were stable and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the demand [3].