生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and providing some support for pig prices [4] - If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 15, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2] - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 2,009 lots today, with a position of approximately 81,100 lots. The highest price today was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,120 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,275 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a volatile manner [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as September and October are not the peak consumption seasons. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial for the future market, consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is volatile adjustment [4] - The core logic is that the monthly output of live pigs may increase until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support pig prices; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered [4] 3.4 Market Overview - The national average price of live pig slaughter on September 15 was 13.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg or 0.45% compared to September 12 [6] - The average price of live pig slaughter in Henan on September 15 was 13.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.67% compared to September 12. The average price in Sichuan was 12.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg or 0.31% [6] - Among futures prices, the 01 contract increased by 0.4%, the 03 contract decreased by 0.11%, the 05 contract decreased by 0.07%, the 07 contract decreased by 0.56%, the 09 contract increased by 0.08%, and the 11 contract increased by 0.15% compared to September 12 [6]