Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - Spot Market: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]
尿素:宏观情绪偏强,短期反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-16 01:25