天然橡胶周报：市场情绪走弱，橡胶冲高回落-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. With the reduction of precipitation in domestic production areas, the supply increased significantly. Overseas production areas were affected by rain, leading to high raw material prices. The production scheduling of downstream enterprises was better than expected, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. The inventory in the middle - stream continued to decline. However, the overall sentiment in the commodity market weakened, causing rubber prices to fall from high levels. In the short term, due to factors such as the weakening of precipitation in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in middle - stream inventory, an increase in downstream operating rates, and weakening commodity market sentiment, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, the weather in Yunnan improved, and the supply - side pressure eased, but the strong demand for raw materials from processing plants supported a slight increase in raw material prices. In Hainan, the weather was good, and raw material output increased seasonally. In Thailand, continuous rain affected rubber tapping, leading to a shortage of raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather improvement was limited, and the shortage of raw materials continued [3] - Demand: It is neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules in the next period, with only small fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [3] - Inventory: It is neutral. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The warehouse receipt inventories of RU and 20 - numbered rubber on the futures exchanges also decreased [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the spread between the RU and NR main contracts widened [3] - Profit: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan narrowed, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole milk was still in a loss range [3] - Valuation: It is bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [3] - Commodity Market: It is neutral. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the yield of US Treasury bonds decreased, and the risk appetite in the financial market increased. However, the domestic commodity market temporarily lacked driving forces, and the market sentiment was weak [3] - Investment Viewpoint: It is oscillating. Considering various factors, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Market Sentiment and Price Trend: The market sentiment cooled down, and rubber returned to a weak state. This week, natural rubber rose first and then fell. As of September 12, the RU main contract closed at 15,820 yuan/ton, down 3.09% week - on - week, and the 20 - numbered rubber main contract closed at 12,555 yuan/ton, down 4.09% week - on - week [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices fell slightly [9] - Position on the Futures Board: The position of the RU2601 contract decreased significantly, and the total position of NR decreased slightly [16][23] - Spread on the Futures Board: The RU - NR spread widened slightly [30] 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: The rainfall in production areas decreased [37] - Production and Export of Main Producing Countries: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import volume was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [72][85][92] - Middle - Stream Inventory: China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. As of September 7, 2025, the social inventory was 1.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7 million tons, or 0.57% [100][107] - Downstream Tire Demand: The capacity utilization rate of tires increased. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased. It is expected that the overall capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly in the next period [108][117] - Automobile and Heavy - Truck Market: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [123] - Tire Export: From January to July, the export volume of tires was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss state, and the profit of Thai latex decreased [141]