甲醇：宏观情绪偏暖，短期反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol price is expected to move within a range, fluctuating with macro - sentiment in the coming week. The short - term主力合约 shows a range - bound pattern with supply - side pressure on the upside and expectations of fundamental improvement and anti - involution policies on the downside [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,396 yuan/ton, up 17 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,386 yuan/ton, up 8; the trading volume was 498,181 lots, an increase of 93,759; the open interest was 783,891 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 16,131 tons with no change; the trading volume was 1,188,647 ten - thousand yuan, up 226,960 ten - thousand yuan; the basis was - 99, up 3; the monthly spread (MA01 - MA05) was - 12, down 6. - In the spot market, the Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 15; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,095 yuan/ton, down 10; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,110 yuan/ton with no change; the Shandong price was 2,340 yuan/ton with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2204.81, down 4.06. The Taicang spot price was 2295, up 15, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2112.5, down 10. Among 20 monitored large and medium - sized cities, 4 cities saw price drops of 2.5 - 25 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market had a narrow regional adjustment at the beginning of the week. Affected by macro - policies, methanol futures and spot prices in ports rose slightly. The basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. Some enterprises in the production area had premium transactions in auctions. Considering the upstream supply - demand structure in the inland area is good, the inland market is stronger than the port market [4]. 3.3 Futures Research - The short - term主力合约 is in a range - bound pattern. The upside pressure comes from the high import volume, high daily output, and increased inventory on the supply side. The high port inventory tries to flow back to the inland to relieve pressure. The downside support comes from the expectation of fundamental improvement and the domestic anti - involution policy. The profit of downstream MTO production has improved, and the market expects the methanol fundamentals to improve. The anti - involution policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities [4][5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].