白糖：关注宏观政策

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the sugar market, presenting data on prices, spreads, and macro - industry news. It also provides production, consumption, and import forecasts for domestic and international markets, along with the trend strength of sugar [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 16.67 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.14 cents. The mainstream spot price is 5940 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5549 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 0 yuan per ton, up 26 yuan year - on - year, and the 15 spread is 23 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 391 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that India's monsoon precipitation has increased again. Brazil's exports have declined, with 374 million tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year decrease, and 359 million tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab has lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 4450 million tons from 4590 million tons. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption 1580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 1116 million tons, an increase of 120 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO initially forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of August 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 2289 million tons, a decrease of 112 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.51%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year - on - year. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, an increase of 540 million tons compared to the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]