国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250916

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products from Guotai Junan Futures on September 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to take a long - position at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans closed higher, and the outcome of China - US negotiations should be monitored [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold condition [2][13]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate in a rebound [2][13]. - Corn: It will move in a sideways pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to macro - policies [2][20]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2][30]. - Pigs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to reverse, while policies are relatively strong [2][32]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,422 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,476 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,392 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase [5]. - News: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.55% increase from the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August 2025 increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons [6][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,042 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,043 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease. DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,939 yuan/ton with a 0.43% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,946 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [13]. - News: On September 15, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to harvest pressure and concerns about Chinese demand. As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 5% [13][15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both soybean meal and soybean is +1 [15]. Corn - Fundamentals: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,167 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,156 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [17]. - News: The northern corn collection and port price was 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [18]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for corn is 0 [19]. Sugar - Fundamentals: The original sugar price was 16.67 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,549 yuan/ton [20]. - News: India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for sugar is 1 [23]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and the night - session closing price was 13,910 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [24]. - News: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the inventory of high - quality lint was low [25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for cotton is 0 [28]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,126 yuan/500 kg with a 2.90% increase, and egg 2601's closing price was 3,369 yuan/500 kg with a 0.51% increase [30]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for eggs is 0 [30]. Pigs - Fundamentals: The Henan spot price was 13,330 yuan/ton, and the Sichuan spot price was 13,100 yuan/ton [32]. - Market Logic: The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The 7 - month contract may be subject to policy regulation in the short term [34]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for pigs is 0 [33]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,360 yuan/ton [36]. - Spot Market: The new - season peanuts are expected to be listed in late September. The prices in various regions are generally stable [37]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for peanuts is 0 [40].