PVC：短期偏强

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC is short - term bullish but faces medium - term pressure. Market anti - deflation and anti - involution factors make PVC short - term strong, yet its fundamentals show high production, high inventory, and policy - disturbed exports, leading to medium - term pressure [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - 01 contract futures price is 4921, East China spot price is 4740, basis is - 181, and 1 - 5 month spread is - 303 [1]. [Spot News] - Favorable industrial macro - policies and a rising domestic commodity market drive up PVC prices. Week - long production enterprise maintenance reduces supply, and pre - holiday terminal stocking is expected to slow inventory growth. Cost supports the firm price. East China calcium carbide type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4800 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 4850 - 5050 yuan/ton [1]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term: Market anti - deflation and anti - involution factors make PVC short - term strong. Medium - term: "Subsidizing chlorine with soda" results in insufficient production cut incentives, high supply, weak domestic demand, difficult inventory transfer, rising PVC warehouse receipts, and potential export policy disruptions, so the high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [1]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].