合成橡胶：短期宏观情绪偏暖，震荡运行

Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3] Core View - The fundamentals and macro sentiment of synthetic rubber are in conflict, with short - term oscillatory movement. Fundamental pressure has significantly increased, while macro expectations provide support. The market will oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the butadiene rubber (BR) 10 - contract on the previous trading day was 11,705 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the day before. The trading volume was 51,478 lots, down 1,477 lots; the open interest was 64,618 lots, up 43,559 lots; and the trading volume was 298.395 million yuan, down 81.31 million yuan [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was - 5 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR10 - BR11 was 40 yuan, down 5 yuan [1] - Spot Market: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China were 11,500 yuan/ton, 11,650 yuan/ton, and 11,650 yuan/ton respectively. The price of butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton. The prices of styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) of Qilu (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged at 12,200 yuan/ton and 11,200 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,250 yuan/ton and 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Fundamentals: The operating rate of butadiene rubber was 69.9965%, down 0.35%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,028 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit was - 128 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. Industry News - On September 15, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight oscillatory adjustment. The downstream buying was mainly for sporadic rigid demand, and the poor trading pressured the supplier prices. In the afternoon, driven by the trend of the main downstream products, some offer intentions were slightly pushed up, but the downstream follow - up was less than expected, and the market showed some oscillations [2] - The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly due to high supply. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate in the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. The inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased, and the high processing profit on the butadiene rubber futures market is unsustainable. Butadiene is also expected to face high - supply pressure in the future, and the cost side of butadiene rubber is also under pressure [3] - There is an expectation of preventive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the market. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization expectations in China have a certain support for the overall valuation of commodities. After the commodity valuation enters a reasonable range, investors' risk appetite for short - selling may be significantly reduced [3]