银河期货沥青周报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Cost - end crude oil prices face resistance in both rising and falling, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate widely. The premium of diluted asphalt, the raw material, remains stable for now, and there is no trend - based guidance from the cost end. In September, the asphalt supply continued to increase, and terminal demand rebounded month - on - month, gradually entering the peak season. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain inventory continued to decline. Among them, refinery inventory stabilized at a low level, and social inventory declined from a high level. Current refinery profits can support high supply, but social inventory is expected to continue active destocking before the end of the year, adding additional supply to the market. The refinery destocking speed will slow down, and inventory pressure will gradually increase before the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the medium - to - long - term cracking spread is expected to weaken. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - Trading strategies include: a unilateral position of oscillation; an arbitrage of a weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; and an option strategy of waiting and seeing [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: Cost - end crude oil prices are in a wide - range short - term oscillation. In September, asphalt supply and demand are both strong, with inventory in the industrial chain decreasing. Refinery inventory is at a low - level standstill, and social inventory is falling from a high level. Refinery profits support high supply, but inventory pressure will increase by the end of the year. Asphalt valuation is high, and the BU2511 contract is expected to trade between 3350 - 3500 [5]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral: oscillation; Arbitrage: weakening asphalt - crude oil spread; Option: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Low - price Resources and Limited Demand Release: There are many low - price asphalt resources in the market, and demand release is limited. Prices in different regions vary: prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan and Chongqing areas decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton; prices in North China increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton; and prices in other regions remained stable [9][11]. - Futures Price and Basis: Futures prices depend on crude oil trends, fluctuating narrowly with crude oil during the week. Regional bases remained stable. Shandong's basis was 292 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton month - on - month; East China's basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; South China's basis was 132 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton [12]. - Refinery Operating Rates: Shandong's operating rate declined, while those in North and Central China increased significantly. By September 11, the operating rate in Northwest China was 63.78%, up 16.95%; in North and Central China, it was 31.59%, up 11.94%; in Shandong, it was 26.65%, down 10.88% [15][16]. - Refinery Inventory: The overall refinery inventory level decreased. By September 11, the inventory rate in Northwest China was 26.83%, down 0.97%; in Northeast China, it was 13.60%, down 0.37%; in North China and Shandong, it was 28.90%, down 1.16% [18][19]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory level continued to decline. On September 8, the social inventory rate was 31.39%, down 0.89% from September 4; on September 11, it was 31.31%, down 0.08% from September 8 [21][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Industrial Chain Data: On September 12, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3368 yuan/ton; Brent crude oil closed at $65.48 per barrel at 15:00. The refinery operating rate on September 11 was 38.38%, and the inventory rate was 26.69%. The social inventory rate on September 11 was 31.31% [25]. - Raw Material Supply: In August, Venezuela's crude oil exports were 641,044 barrels per day, a 12% month - on - month increase. Exports to China were 123,871 barrels per day, a 78% month - on - month decrease [73][74].