原油周报：宏观地缘局势复杂，供需维持近强远弱-20250916

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report: Complex Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situations, Supply and Demand Maintaining Near-Term Strength and Long-Term Weakness [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices rebounded and then declined. OPEC+ announced a new round of 1.65 million barrels per day production increase plan on September 7. After the previous digestion of the production increase negative, oil prices started a strong rebound on Monday. Since June, the implementation of OPEC+ production increases has become the starting point for oil price rebounds. Geopolitical conflicts remained intense during the week, and Europe and the United States planned to strengthen sanctions on relevant enterprises involved in Russian oil trade, with geopolitical premiums supporting the near-term pattern. The US CPI was strong during the week, while employment data was weak. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September. Near-term economic weakness and persistent long-term inflation affect market sentiment. Oil prices are still trading on short-term demand prospects and declined towards the weekend. With the expectation of continuous growth in the supply side, the long-term surplus pattern is difficult to disprove. The main driving force for oil price increases comes from geopolitical disturbances. The market still has short-term differences. The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and strong replenishment in China support near-term prices. There are resistances to both oil price increases and decreases. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment trend after the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented next week. The Brent operating range is expected to be between $62 and $68 per barrel [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, oil prices rebounded and then declined. OPEC+ announced a new production increase plan. Geopolitical conflicts and sanctions supported the near-term pattern. The US CPI was strong, employment data was weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The long-term surplus pattern is difficult to disprove, and oil price increases are mainly driven by geopolitical disturbances. The market has short-term differences, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the Fed's interest rate cut. The Brent operating range is expected to be between $62 and $68 per barrel [5]. Strategies - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation. - Arbitrage: Domestic gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak. - Options: Wait and see (views are for reference only and not for trading basis) [6][7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Macroeconomy - The US CPI increased in August, and employment data was weak, leading to an increase in interest rate cut expectations. The 8 - month CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, both the largest increases since January. The initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October 2021. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded, and the US dollar index continued to weaken [10][12]. Supply - OPEC may continue to increase production, strengthening supply - side pressure. In August, OPEC's production increased by 509,000 barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia leading the increase. Russia's oil exports increased, but refined oil exports decreased significantly. The number of active US rigs increased slightly, and weekly production increased [13][14][17]. Inventory - Shore tank inventories remained at a high level, while floating storage was at a low level. In 2024, global crude oil inventories decreased by 71.09 million barrels year - on - year, with a daily destocking of 195,000 barrels [21][24]. Balance - The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 but still pointed to a significant long - term surplus. In 2025, the surplus will be close to 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and more than 4 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [25][27]. Spot Market - The Middle East spot market was strong, while the North Sea market was weak. The Dubai swap first - to - third spread remained above $3 per barrel, while the DFL in the North Sea fell below $0.5 per barrel [28][29][31]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Crude Oil Price and Calendar Spread - Data on the first - line prices and calendar spreads of Brent, WTI, and Dubai were presented [34][35]. Crude Oil Spot - Europe & West Africa - Data on the price premiums of Forties, Brent, Bonnylight, Girassol, etc. were presented [37][38]. Crude Oil Spot - Middle East & Mediterranean - Data on the price premiums of Oman, Urals, etc. were presented [41][42]. Crude Oil Spot - North America - Data on the price differentials of LLS - Mars, WCS - Midland, etc. were presented [46][47]. US Crude Oil Weekly Supply and Demand - Data on US crude oil production, feedstock intake, imports, and exports were presented [49][50]. EIA Weekly Data - Refinery Operations - Data on US refinery operating rates in different regions were presented [52][53]. EIA Weekly Data - Gasoline - Data on US gasoline production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [56][57]. EIA Weekly Data - Distillates - Data on US distillate production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [59][60]. EIA Weekly Data - Jet Fuel - Data on US jet fuel production, net imports, inventories, and demand were presented [62][63]. US Crude Oil Weekly Inventory - Data on US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and strategic inventories were presented [65][66][68]. Crude Oil Floating Storage - Data on global, Asian, European, and West African crude oil floating storage were presented [70][71][72]. Global Floating Crude Oil and In - Transit Crude Oil - Data on global floating crude oil and in - transit crude oil were presented [76][77][78]. European Refined Oil Inventories - Data on ARA gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil inventories were presented [81][82][86]. Singapore & Middle East Refined Oil Inventories - Data on heavy, medium, and light inventories in Fujairah and Singapore were presented [87][88]. Tanker Freight - Heavy Oil - Data on the freight rates of Dirty - VLCC on different routes were presented [90][91]. Cracking and Profits - Northwest Europe - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, gasoline cracking remained stable, and other components were generally stable [94][95]. Cracking and Profits - Asia - Pacific - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, gasoline cracking was stable, naphtha cracking was strong, and high - sulfur and propane cracking weakened [101][102]. Cracking and Profits - North America - Diesel cracking declined from high levels, and other components' cracking was generally stable [108][109]. Cracking and Profits - China - Oil prices fluctuated, domestic refined oil cracking spreads had narrow - range fluctuations, gasoline cracking was at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, diesel cracking declined, and gasoline and diesel export profits continued to rise [115]. Oil Price vs. Position - Data on the relationship between Brent, WTI prices and positions, as well as the positions of Gasoil, RBOB, and HO were presented [122][124][125].