申银万国期货早间策略-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The September trend is more volatile compared to July and August, entering a high - level consolidation phase after continuous growth. The divergence between long and short forces due to increased hedging demand of some funds at high levels brings greater fluctuations to stock index futures. However, in the long - term, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive with higher volatility but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with lower volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts showed different changes, with the next - month contract rising by 2.20, the next - quarter contract falling by 2.20, and the far - quarter contract falling by 8.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 73,627.00, and the open interest decreased by 17,133.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts generally declined, with the current - month contract falling by 7.40. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 31,164.00, and the open interest decreased by 5,440.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts all decreased, with the current - month contract falling by 38.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 67,687.00, and the open interest decreased by 20,183.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts also decreased, with the current - month contract falling by 32.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 107,983.00, and the open interest decreased by 19,043.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the IF next - month minus current - month spread was - 8.00 (previous value: - 6.20) [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indices: The CSI 300 index rose by 0.24%, the SSE 50 index fell by - 0.20%, the CSI 500 index fell by - 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by - 0.10%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index also had different performance, with the industrial sector rising by 2.14% and the real - estate and finance sector falling by - 0.62% [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indices changed, for example, the IF current - month minus CSI 300 basis was - 5.26 (previous value: 1.20) [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - Domestic Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index fell by - 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index rose by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.52% [1] - Overseas Indices: The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.22%, the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.89%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.47%, and the DAX Index rose by 0.21% [1] 5. Macro Information - Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation. China's economic data in August showed that the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - In August, the new - house prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the decrease in second - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. The State Council issued a document to strengthen the comprehensive supervision of the tourism market. 17 car companies will implement the initiative on payment of supplier accounts. Guangzhou plans to build at least 300 V2G piles by the end of 2025 and launched a car - consumption promotion activity. Henan aims to make the AI industry scale exceed 160 billion yuan by 2027 [2]