工业硅：“反内卷”情绪再次发酵，多晶硅：情绪重燃，盘面或继续冲高

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The sentiment in the polysilicon market has reignited, and the futures market may continue to rise. The "anti - involution" sentiment in the industrial silicon market has fermented again [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon Si2511, the closing price is 8,800 yuan/ton, with a volume of 498,210 hands and a position of 290,948 hands. For polysilicon PS2511, the closing price is not fully provided, with a volume of 53,545 hands and a position of 132,212 hands. There are also data on spreads, basis, and cost for both [2]. - Price Data: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9,650 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 51,550 yuan/ton. There are also prices for various raw materials and downstream products [2]. - Profit Data: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, at - 2,526 yuan/ton and - 3,471 yuan/ton respectively. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 14.4 yuan/kg, DMC enterprise profit is - 1,224 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 30 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Data: Industrial silicon social inventory is 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons. Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.9 million tons [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On September 8, the Commerce Bureau of Karamay, Xinjiang, released a project for a 10GW high - efficiency solar cell production project with an expected investment of 5 billion yuan, to be implemented in two phases [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 2. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].