国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250916

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with oscillations due to fluctuating expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Coke: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][15] - Logs: Oscillatory and erratic [2][17] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as market expectations, macro sentiment, and industry fundamentals [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price of I2601 closed at 796.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.44%); the position decreased by 7,364 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore mostly declined, while some domestic ore prices rose. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - News: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [4] - Trend Strength: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.93%); for HC2510, it was 3,398 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.71%). Spot prices in most regions increased. Some basis and spread values changed [8] - News: From January to August 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, down 3.3% month - on - month [9][10] - Trend Strength: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed. There were changes in basis, spread, and cross - variety spread [11] - News: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 0.7% year - on - year; the daily average output was 249.6 million tons, down 2.8% month - on - month [11] - Trend Strength: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal remained stable, while some coke prices declined. Some basis and spread values changed [15] - News: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal [15] - Trend Strength: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [18] - News: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [20] - Trend Strength: 0 [20]